What weapons is Russia using in its war against Ukraine? What capabilities does the Russian military-industrial complex (MIC) have, and can it increase production of tanks and missiles? Which countries can supply weapons to Russia? And how will Ukraine counteract in order to win the war? These are the questions that the “News of Pryazovia” project of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty asked Ivan Kirichevsky, an analyst of the military publication Defence Express.
The potential of the Russian army
As military analyst Kyrychevsky notes, despite the fact that Russia has suffered significant losses in the war in Ukraine, the Russian army has not yet exhausted its resources to continue it.
There are situations where the Russians begin to deploy T-54, T-55, and MT-LB (light armored tractor) with shipborne anti-aircraft guns from World War II.
“Unfortunately, it is too early to talk about any level of exhaustion. On the one hand, they are running out of certain optics, but on the other hand, there are situations where the Russians begin to deploy T-54, T-55, and MT-LB (light armored tractor) with shipborne anti-aircraft guns from World War II, and use old S-60 anti-aircraft guns from 1950s.
But a certain amount of relatively new technology according to Russian standards remains. When I say relatively new, I mean tanks like the T-80BVM and T-72B3, and relatively new tanks like the T-90M “Breakthrough” – an upgraded version of the T-90 produced in the 1990s. According to our official data, during the full-scale invasion, the Russians were able to produce up to 100 of these machines, 15 of which were lost.
Plus, they can still restore them at a rate of up to 50 machines per month maximum. That is, if take these T-90M “Breakthrough” and make them anew, and modernize them somewhere at Uralvagonzavod, with a production capacity of up to 10 machines per month, and bring them out of storage and repair them slightly. That is their approximate potential per month if we consider the industry.
Because there is a story that some of the declared or destroyed, or damaged equipment that passes through our statistics, Russians are trying to at least drag out and somehow repair such equipment, or use it as donor parts.
“Sanctions restrict Russia”
At the same time, the expert notes that Russia has lost the qualitative ability to produce relatively modern armored vehicles due to sanctions restrictions.
Russians are forced to use Soviet sights
If we take the same tanks, what is the problem? Instead of Western electronics, Western thermal imagers, and Western sights on our so-called mobilization T-80BVM tanks of the 2020 model, the Russians are forced to use Soviet sights.
But the problem for them is that tanks with Western electronics can provide them with the ability to shoot from covered positions.
This is when the tank does not approach the positions directly, shoots with direct targeting, but instead goes behind a hill, raises the gun and begins to shoot at the maximum angle to ensure a shooting distance of 7-8 km. This format of shooting allows Russian tanks to avoid being exposed to fire from our “Javelins”.
When old tanks or modernized tanks with old Soviet sights, or simply old Soviet tanks, are used in combat, the accuracy of shooting at our positions is significantly lower in such a format.
Kyrychevsky states that the Russian army has switched to “old-fashioned sights and is forced to fight in this way.”
They lag behind precisely in the quality indicators that ultimately deprive them of the ability to conduct intensive offensive operations.
Meanwhile, we receive “Leopards” which, even in such a condition, are significantly better than anything that Russians consider modernized. It has to be said that first and foremost, the Russians are lagging behind in terms of quality indicators, which ultimately deprive them of the ability to conduct intensive offensive operations. However, on the other hand, it is unfortunate that we cannot talk about the complete exhaustion of material and technical resources, with only one T-34 tank remaining soon.
This is the “Kremlin’s dreams”
The plans of the Russian leadership to produce and modernize over 1000 tanks in the next three years are considered quite likely by an expert. However, the harsh reality of Russian defense always shatters any dreams of the Kremlin. If we multiply 36 months by an estimated rate of 50 modernized or refurbished tanks, in theory, it is possible to gather 1500 tanks in three years.
But fortunately for us, the harsh reality of Russian defense always shatters any dreams of the Kremlin. For example, last fall there was a story that the Russians had ramped up their mobilization efforts so much that they were on the verge of restoring T-62 tanks – about 800 tanks were mentioned. That is, the pace is 250 tanks per year.
There, the task was not just to restore machines that remember the Brezhnev era, but to make them relatively modern by installing an optoelectronic station to combat drones, a state-of-the-art sight, welding anti-cumulative grids, and installing active protection blocks such as Kontakt-1. In the end, they seemed to have sent their modernized T-62 tanks into battle, but with one major flaw – the 30-year-old sight. Nevertheless, they considered it a successful completion of the production plan.
It is entirely possible that this story of producing 1,500 tanks in three years also includes the story when Solovyov (a prominent Russian TV presenter) suggested, “Let’s restore a tank division of T-34s, take them off their pedestals.”
China doesn’t want to sell
Kirichevsky explained what prevents Russia from purchasing military equipment from abroad.
“China doesn’t want to sell. Indeed, if you look at some tabular data, there is something similar in China in terms of the design of the T-54 or T-62 copies, something similar to Soviet artillery systems. But to what extent China is interested in selling all of this, given that it is currently actively preparing for a major war over Taiwan.
China is forced to prepare for a protracted war where large masses of troops are needed.
They are involving prisoners in production
According to Kyrychevsky, Russia has actively started involving prisoners in the production of weapons.
If we talk about the quality and characteristics of Russian weapons in the future, it should be noted that Russians have seriously started involving prisoners in production, in work at the defense industry complex, and have legalized it accordingly in the legal field. They started with the “Uralvagonzavod” plant and factories in the Kurgan region, where they make BMP-3 and anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles. Perhaps they hope to boost their production and won’t need to buy anything from anyone.
Russians see themselves as an empire that brought progress in military technology. And now they have to buy all of these technologies from their former satellites, because Russian propagandists remember that they once sold technology to the Chinese, who essentially built their entire industrial complex on Soviet technologies. Now imagine going to the Chinese and asking them to sell you a spare part for an old T-55 after all of that.
“Tank is the main weapon in war”
Radio stations are operating on rusty components and they often short out. Our Ministry of Defense examined destroyed or damaged samples of Russian T-90M “Proryv” tanks, which were manufactured last year. Even then, the Russians had to use electronics that can be purchased on Aliexpress, as it is commonly said nowadays, to equip their onboard electronics. Non-commercial electronics that are not protected from rust are used, and radio stations operate on rusty components that often short out. Even the Wagnerites, who boasted, “Look how cool we are, we have the same T-90M “Proryv” near Bakhmut.” But when firing was taking place, they would climb out of the tank’s turret and adjust their fire using radios.
The expert also noted that the statements of the Russian leadership regarding the greatness of their country’s tanks are exaggerated.
Well, of course it can be convenient to shoot at the Ukrainian Armed Forces from concealed positions, but engaging in battle even against old “Leopards”, “Leopard 2s”, where the electronics are much better, it’s a bit hopeless. On the other hand, the more they cling to the illusion that they have “no analogs” and have “wunderwaffe” that can turn the tide of the war, the sharper their defeat in this war may be.
At the same time, Kirichevsky says that tanks are currently the main weapon in the war that Russia has unleashed against Ukraine.