The regular Russian military has not been able to achieve Putin’s goal of reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Therefore, the Russian president is placing his last hope on Prigozhin and the Wagner Group.
Source: ISW.
A corresponding hypothesis is being put forward at the Institute for the Study of War, taking into account recent events. In a recent report, it is noted that Prigozhin seems to be regaining the favor of Vladimir Putin, mainly due to the Russian military’s inability to realize the dreams of the Russian president.
The Wagnerians have had their aid restored
At the Institute, it is assumed that the Wagnerians are once again receiving reinforcements, ammunition, and political recognition. And this is a “sharp deviation” from the Kremlin’s previous efforts, which were directed against the mercenaries of Prigozhin since January 2023.
Indeed, on April 17th, it became known that the Wagnerians are preparing three motorized rifle brigades of mobilized servicemen. They will be used to strengthen the flanks in Bakhmut. Moreover, Prigozhin confirmed that in addition to Wagnerites, Russian airborne troops are also operating. And, in fact, he confirmed that his mercenaries are receiving more artillery shells. This indicates that the Russian Ministry of Defense has resumed supplies.
There is also the possibility of amendments being made to the Russian law on veterans’ rights.
They anticipate that private military contractors’ fighters may be granted this status. It is noted at the Institute that Prigozhin actively advocated for this. And if this bill is ultimately passed, it will be a clear demonstration that the position of the leader of the mercenaries has improved in the immediate vicinity of the Kremlin.
Relationship building – Putin’s initiative
The authors of the report note that they cannot say for certain how much trust Putin has in Prigozhin. But it seems that the bloody dictator is no longer retaliating against him by denying him reinforcements and ammunition.
The journalists from The New York Times, who cited leaked secret documents from the Pentagon, noted that Putin himself attempted to settle the hostility between the Wagner Group and the Russian Ministry of Defense. He arranged a meeting between Shoygu and Prigozhin on February 22nd.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean that Putin fully stands behind Prigozhin. It could be a temporary decision due to disappointment in the regular Russian military, which failed to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 1st, as he had ordered.
At the Institute, they noted that Putin appointed Mikhail Teplynsky not without reason. In their opinion, this is a demonstration that the victory, at least in Bachmut, is a priority for the bloody dictator in the near future.
Moreover, analysts suggest that it may be necessary on the eve of May 9th or the “Direct Line” press conference, which Putin reportedly plans to hold in June. With it, the bunker grandfather will try to confirm his authority among the domestic audience.
One more reason for the support of Prigozhin is the acute shortage of instructors. The Kremlin may rely on instructors from the Wagner PMC to train mobilized forces. The Institute reminds that the Wagnerites continue to recruit volunteers throughout Russia. It is not excluded that the Kremlin still regards the PMC as a “real source of combat power”.